Tagged: Luke Scott
2012 Rays Will Go As Far As Starters Take Them
As spring training camps open it is time to look at the American League East competition for the New York Yankees. How will the other teams fare as they gear up to dethrone the 2011 division champions? Do these teams have the pitching? Is there enough offense? Let’s see.
PART 3 – TAMPA BAY RAYS
Last season was supposed to be the time that the Tampa Bay Rays dropped from contention in the American League East. After all, they lost their star outfielder in Carl Crawford, their slugging first baseman Carlos Pena, their league-leading closer in Rafael Soriano and almost all the elements of what was a very good bullpen in 2010.
Yet, the Rays made the playoffs with a miracle finish that overtook a Boston Red Sox team that choked its way to the finish line. The Rays qualified with a 91-71 record but they lost in the first round of the A.L. Division Series against the Texas Rangers.
What is in store for the Rays in 2012? Do they have another miracle or two left in them?
STARTERS
It is real easy to see what the Rays strategy is for 2012. Run out the best five starters you have and keep them in the game as long as you can to cover up a weak middle of the bullpen and hope the offense can muster enough stolen bases and home runs to eke out a victory.
Right-hander James Shields was the poster boy for this team. In 2010, he was 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA. Last season, he was 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and 11 complete games. The question is will Shields pitch like he did in 2010 or 2011? As the dean of the staff at age 30, his fortunes will set the tone for the rest of the staff.
The ace of this staff was supposed to have been David Price, who was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 2010. Price, 26, fell from his perch with a 12-13 mark and a 3.49 ERA. The problem is that Price is basically a one-pitch pitcher: his fastball. His breaking stuff was inconsistent and as a result he was a .500 pitcher. Price needs to harness control of his slider and develop even a decent change-up in order to be successful.
Many people were stunned the Rays dealt Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs. But the Rays knew they had rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson ready to jump into the rotation. Heliickson, 24, pitched as the Rays hoped with a 13-10 record and a 2.95 ERA. While Price is still searching for a change-up, Hellickson uses his as a weapon and the Rays hope he gets even better.
The Rays used right-handers Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots last season. But both pitchers struggled with command and injuries in 2011.
Davis, 26, was 11-10 with a 4.45 ERA in 29 starts and Niemann was 11-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 23 starts.
One of these two pitchers is likely to lose their starting spot this spring. The Rays believe 22-year-old left-hander Matt Moore may be ready for prime time in 2012. Moore made one start during the regular season, a five-inning shutout of the Yankees. Then he threw a gem to defeat the Texas Rangers in the ALDS. Moore is a consensus pick to follow Hellickson as A.L. Rookie of the Year.
Though this is the best rotation in the division, there are still concerns. If Shields and Price do not pitch well and Hellickson and Moore do not follow up on their success, the Rays are in big trouble. This is a team that does not have much of Plan B behind its five starters.
BULLPEN
The Rays luck in 2011 even extended to their bullpen in 2011.
They replaced Soriano with former Yankee scapegoat Kyle Farnsworth as their closer and Farnsworth ended up pitching well. (Yankee fans may let out a primal scream now). Yep, Farnsworth, was 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA and he saved 25 games out of 31 chances.
Journeyman right-hander Joel Peralta also did a nice job replacing Joaquin Benoit, who left to sign with Detroit. Peralta, 35, was 3-4 with a 2.93 ERA and he added six saves. Veteran right-hander Juan Cruz also helped tighten up the bullpen in the late innings but he was allowed to leave as a free agent.
So the Rays will be building their bullpen around Farnsworth and Peralta in 2012.
The Rays did pick up former closer Fernando Rodney from the Los Angeles Angels. Rodney, 34, has good stuff but has been bothered with back problems. He was 3-4 with 4.50 ERA with the Angels in 2011.
The Rays are hoping left-hander J.P. Howell will get over his arm problems and pitch like he did in 2009 when he was 7-5 with a 2.84 ERA. In 2011, Howell struggled and was 2-3 with 6.16 ERA in 46 games.
The Rays bullpen likely will be rounded out by disappointing left-hander Jake McGee, right-hander Brandon Gomes and the loser of the battle between Davis and Niemann for the final spot in the rotation.
There is no guarantee Farnsworth and Peralta will pitch like they did in 2011. There also is some real soft spots in middle relief and the lack of an effective left-hander may really hurt in a division filled with lefty hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira.
That means manager Joe Maddon might be forced to leave his starters in the game longer than he might like to cover up the deficiencies and that takes its toll on those starters late in the season. The bullpen is an area of some concern.
STARTING LINEUP
The Rays have always been a running team who like to bunt, take extra bases and force opponents into making errors. The loss of Crawford did not change that in 2011. However, the Rays newest emphasis is on the home run.
The Rays had five players hit 16 or more home runs in 2011 and they re-signed first baseman Carlos Pena as a free agent and he hit 28 for the Cubs last season.
The team still revolves around third baseman Evan Longoria, who shook off another season of injuries to hit .244 with 31 home runs and 99 RBIs. The batting average has to be worrisome but Longoria is the team’s only real all-around threat as a hitter and power source.
The Rays also was boosted by a comeback season from Ben Zobrist, who hit .269 with 20 home runs and 91 RBIs. He will likely play a lot at second base and some in right-field as he did last season.
The Rays also rely on the power and speed of centerfielder B.J. Upton, who hit .243 with 23 home runs, 81 RBIs and 36 stolen bases.
Rookie Desmond Jennings arrived and he played well in 63 games. He hit .259 with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs as the team’s leadoff hitter. The Rays have high hopes he will surpass Crawford as an athlete and player.
The Rays also caught a bit of luck when Matt Joyce finally began to live up to the promise he showed with the Detroit Tigers. Joyce started off hot but collapsed badly after the All-Star break. He finished with a .277 batting average with 19 home runs and 77 RBIs as a platoon right-fielder and DH.
Sean Rodriguez figures to be the primary shortstop in 2012 though he hit just .223 with eight homers and 36 RBIs. That is because incumbent shortstop Reid Brignac was worse, hitting .193 with one home run and 15 RBIs.
The Rays also reshuffled their catchers for 2012 and they are looking to start former Yankee backup Jose Molina as a starter after he hit .281 with the Blue Jays. Molina, 36, was signed because the Rays were getting beat at their own game. Teams like the Yankees and Rangers were stealing on them at will.
Molina figures to end that with his defensive abilities and arm. However, an offense that relies on the stolen base will be slowed considerably with Molina on base. That is the big tradeoff.
To show how much more the Rays are valuing power, look no further than the signing of left-hander Luke Scott as the team’s primary DH. Scott averaged 28 home runs from 2008 through 2010 with the Orioles before injuries short-circuited his 2011 season. Scott and Joyce will certainly slow down any running game. But the Rays will hit their share of home runs in 2012.
BENCH
Maddon uses his bench a lot and he will again in 2012.
Brignac will battle career backup Eliot Johnson for the backup middle infield job. Johnson is the better hitter but Brignac is a bit better on defense.
For a while it looked Sam Fuld was going to be the next Pete Rose. Instead, reality set in and he ended up being the next Reggie Willits. But Fuld does provide speed and effort off the bench as an occasional outfield starter and pinch-runner.
Rookie Jose Lobaton will likely back up Molina. Lobaton hit .118 in 34 at-bats last season. The Rays do have a hitting catcher in Robinson Chirinos, however, his inability to throw base-stealers make him a project behind the plate for right now.
This bench is merely adequate. Maddon will use it a lot but there is not much of substance to it.
ANALYSIS
The 1963 Los Angeles Dodgers may be most interesting world championship team in history. They beat the Yankees in four straight games to win the World Series despite having one power hitter in Frank Howard, who led the team with 28 home runs. Outfielder Tommy Davis led the team with 88 RBIs.
How did they win? Well, they had Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Johnny Podres combine to win 58 games and they had Maury Wills and Davis’ brother, Willie, combine to steal 65 bases.
So they relied on pitching, defense, line-drive hitters and speed and athleticism to win. This is similar to what the Rays would like to build in 2012.
They will go as far as their rotation will allow them to go. Maddon will have to rely on them a lot.
As far as offense goes, Maddon is actually counting more on the home run than the stolen base because only Jennings, Upton and Zobrist are consistent base stealers. Maddon will use his other players like Longoria and Rodriguez to steal in certain situations.
But this team did need the Red Sox to go through a monumental collapse to make it 2011. I do not think their luck extends to 2012. They will not fall precipitously as they should have last season. But I do not see them winning the division. They look to be a contender for second place with the Red Sox. Nothing more and nothing less.
ON THURSDAY – PART 4 BOSTON RED SOX
Orioles Seem To Have Stranglehold On 5th Place
As spring training camps open it is time to look at the American League East competition for the New York Yankees. How will the other teams fare as they gear up to dethrone the 2011 division champions? Do these teams have the pitching? Is there enough offense? Let’s see.
PART 1 – BALTIMORE ORIOLES
The 2011 season began with a lot of optimism because of the great job Buck Showalter did in turning around the Orioles at the end of the 2010 season.
But 2011 was much like every season for the Orioles since 1999. It fizzled into frustration in a hurry. They finished with a record of 69-93 and they were a distant fifth in the A.L. East, 28 games behind the Yankees.
This coming season promises to pretty similar because the Orioles have not made a lot of changes to their roster. With the exeption of Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Derrek Lee, this pretty much the same group that floundered through much of 2011.
STARTERS
One big reason is that the Orioles banked their future hopes on a collection of young starting pitchers like Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman. They progressed through the minors but none of them have established themselves as major-league quality starters. And if you want to compete in this division, you have to have good starting pitching.
The Orioles compounded that issue by trading their best starting pitcher, Guthrie, to the Colorado Rockies for starter Jason Hammel and reliever Matt Lindstrom. As a result, the Orioles’ “ace” is former Rangers right-hander Tommy Hunter, who was 4-4 with a 4.68 ERA in an injury-shortened season.
The Orioles, led by general manager Dan Duquette, are now shifting their sites overseas and the team signed two pitchers from the Japanese League in Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada.
Chen, 26, is a left-hander from Taiwan who has compiled a 36-30 record and a 2.48 ERA in four seasons with the Chunichi Dragons. He also has pretty good stuff with 500 career strikeouts in 631 1/3 innings.
Wada, 30, is another left-hander and he has overcome two injury-plagued seasons to compile a combined 33-13 record with a 2.29 ERA in the last two seasons with Fukuoda Softbank Hawks. While Chen has better stuff, Wada is considered to have better control.
Both figure prominently in the Orioles plans for 2012 and both likely will be in the rotation this season, depending on how they progress in the spring.
Hammel, 29, was 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA last season with the Rockies. The tall right-hander figures to be slotted as the No. 4 starter.
The Orioles still have high hopes for Matusz, Britton, Arrieta and Tillman. But it appears Britton and Arrieta are going to get most of the attention this spring. The lefty Britton suffered a shoulder injury last season and he finished the season 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA. Arrieta was 10-8 with 5.05 ERA.
BULLPEN
The bullpen was a strength of this team when Koji Uehara was around but he was dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline last July.
The closer job is up for grabs between incumbent closer Kevin Gregg, who saved 22 games but blew seven chances and was 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA, and Jim Johnson, who saved nine games and was 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Lindtsrom, who saved 23 games for the Astros in 2010, can also be shifted into the closer role.
The rest of the bullpen will likely be made up with lefty Darren O’Day and former starters Alfredo Simon, Brad Bergesen and Jason Berken.
STARTING LINEUP
A few years ago, the Orioles seem to invested their future into second baseman Brian Roberts, right-fielder Nick Markakis and center-fielder Adam Jones and have built around those players.
Unfortunately, Roberts has suffered through injury after injury and Markakis and Jones have underperformed expectations.
With the Orioles lack of ability to attract high-priced free-agent talent, the Orioles have to rely on that trio as the core of the team again.
The Orioles may also begin getting what they expected out of catcher Matt Wieters, who hit 22 home runs and won a Gold Glove for his defensive work behind the plate. The former No. 1 pick also is showing some signs of leadership on the team.
Shortstop J.J. Hardy finally shook off injuries that plagued him since he was with the Brewers in 2008 as he hit 30 home runs and drove in 80 runs.
Third baseman Mark Reynolds was pretty much as advertised. He did not hit for average and struck out 196 times but he also hit 37 home runs and drove in 87 runs.
Former Rangers first baseman Chris Davis is pretty much a carbon copy of Reynolds at first base only he does most of his striking out from the left side.
The Orioles will likely platoon veterans Endy Chavez and Nolan Reimold in the outfield and look for the Orioles to make a late bid for a DH.
They could re-sign veteran Vladimir Guerrero or chose from among Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui to replace Scott.
BENCH
Former Yankee Wilson Betemit will be the top reserve on the infield and middle infield reserve Robert Andino will return to provide glovework behind Roberts and Hardy. Former Rangers backstop Taylor Teagarden will be the backup to Wieters.
The Orioles could use the spring to look for some veteran help in the outfield to bolster their bench a bit.
ANALYSIS
With Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Reynolds and Davis the Orioles seem to have plenty of firepower. Plus when Roberts is healthy and Markakis is going good, they can get on base and steal a base or two. But the overall offense may be too geared towards power over putting the ball iin play and advancing runners.
The Orioles, as a team, strike out way too much and it cost them because their pitching is not that strong.
The Orioles are gambling on two Japanese League pitchers and two journeyman American starters (Hunter and Hammel) to give them time to develop their young pitchers like Britton and Arrieta. The jury is still out on Matusz, who looked like a surefire star in the making in 2010.
Without a consistent starting rotation, any effort Showalter makes in the bullpen could prove futile. A good bullpen only limits the damage. The bullpen should be strong but it is obvious they are going to tire quickly if they are constantly coming in the fourth or fifth inning.
Barring another Showalter miracle, this team is headed for more frustration in 2012. They simply can’t compete with the big boys (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox) and they merely hold their own against the Blue Jays. If I were a betting man, I would suspect that the Orioles will finish fifth again.
It is a spot for which they are built.
ON TUESDAY – PART 2 TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Damon Among Players Yankees May Want At DH
The Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade is not even official yet but the rumors are already swirling about who the Yankees will use to replace Montero at designated hitter.
The reason is that there are a number of free-agent candidates who might be available and a few of them are pretty familiar faces to Yankee fans.
The first name that immediately came to mind was Johnny Damon, who was with the Yankees from 2006-2009 but was let go when Curtis Granderson was acquired. After a lackluster 2010 season with the Detroit Tigers, Damon signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and rebounded to hit .261 with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs last season.
Damon, who lives in Orlando, FL in the offseason, hoped to return to the Rays in 2012 but the Rays signed lefty power-hitting former Oriole Luke Scott and he figures to be a first baseman and DH for them this season.
Damon, 38, could help the Yankees as a spare outfielder, at first base, at DH and as a left-handed bat off the bench. Damon even stole 19 bases in 25 attempts for the Rays in 2011 and he could give the Yankees a spark on the bases. Yankee fans remember his two-base swipe off the Phillies in Game 5 in 2009 that keyed a come-from-behind victory.
The Yankees apparently are speaking to former Rays first baseman Carlos Pena. Pena, 33, was actually selected off waivers by the Yankees last August but the team could not work out a trade for Pena with the Chicago Cubs.
Pena was allowed to become a free agent after hitting .225 with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs in 153 games with the Cubs last season. Pena has indicated that he has been contacted by the Yankees but Pena is looking at other options that allow him to play first base regularly.
Another former Yankee star, Hideki Matsui, could figure in the search. Matsui, 37, is also available as a free agent after hitting .251 with 12 home runs and 72 RBIs in 141 games with the Oakland Athletics last season.
However, because of past knee injuries the Yankees would likely limit Matsui to strictly DH. There is no doubt that Matsui’s return would be hailed because he had a large fan following the Bronx and he was the Most Valuable Player of the 2009 World Series.
An even further stretch could see the Yankees re-sign Jorge Posada. Though Posada reportedly had expressed a plan to retire at age 40 it has not been made official.
Though Posada’s ability to switch-hit and play first base and fill the role of an emergency catcher looked good on paper, the Yankees were disappointed with his hitting at DH last season. Posada lost his role in May as the DH against left-handed pitching to Andruw Jones. In September, he lost the job altogether when Jesus Montero was placed in the role.
Posada ended up hitting .235 with 14 home runs and 44 RBIs. He hit .092 against left-handers.
For now, the Yankee company line is they will look at corner infielder Jorge Vazquez this spring.
Vazquez, 29, hit .262 with 32 home runs and 93 RBIs in 118 games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. That came off the heels of a hot spring where he impressed the Yankees with his ability to hit for average and power.
Vazquez, a right-handed hitter from Mexico, is not very impressive as a fielder but he has proven to be a proficient hitter in the Yankees’ system.
The Yankees think Vazquez or Jones could handle the primary DH duties while manager Joe Girardi could use veteran players such as Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Granderson to rotate as the DH to give them a rest from playing in the field.
Though it is tempting to speculate about how many home runs he would hit at Yankee Stadium, do not look for the Yankees to make any effort to sign left-handed-hitting first baseman Prince Fielder. After the Yankees paid $10 million to sign right-handed starter Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year contract it is unlikely they will spend very much on a DH.
Looking at the options the Yankees have before them, it appears that Damon would make the most sense. Damon could be valuable as a fifth outfielder, part-time first baseman, primary DH or valuable off the bench as a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner. Damon has always been a popular player when he was in pinstripes and he is well-liked by his former teammates.
STAY TUNED
Mitre Awful, Granderson Ailing As O’s Blast Yankees
- The Yankees scored their only run in the third inning when Melky Mesa and Nick Swisher singled with one out. A Matt Wieters passed ball advanced Mesa to third and he scored on a Mark Teixeira fielder’s choice grounder.
- Swisher had two of the Yankees’ seven hits in the game and he raised his spring average to .255. It appears his early struggles with a shoulder injury are over and he is ready for the regular season.
- Mark Prior, Romulo Sanchez and Luis Ayala combined to pitch four scoreless innings of relief. Prior, who is nowhere near the pitcher he was, has a 1.35 ERA on the spring. Ayala, who shows a lot of promise, has an 0.93 ERA.
- Joba Chamberlain pitched for the first time since March 11 and gave up a solo home run to J.J. Hardy. But he proved he was not affected by the strained left oblique that shelved him.
- Mitre essentially made it easy on the Yankees by taking himself out of the competition for a starting rotation spot — not that he had much of a chance anyway. He was simply ineffective. In 64 pitches, Mitre gave up three singles, two home runs, walked a batter and balked in a run.
- The Yankees were able to get on base against Britton but they kept letting him off the hook by making out after out with runners in scoring position. Eduardo Nunez and Ronnie Belliard both failed twice to get a hit with two runners on. Teixeira and Andruw Jones did the same thing in the fifth. The Yankees were 1-for-11 with RISP overall.
- The bottom three of the batting order, Nunez, Belliard and Brandon Laird were a combined 0-for-9 in the game.
CC Bounces Back To Lead Yanks To Sweep Of Birds
- The 6-3 score did not really reflect how well Sabathia pitched. Through six innings, Sabathia had only surrendered the one hit — Jones’ solo home run — and Jones also reached first on a throwing error by Sabathia in the fifth inning. Sabathia faltered a bit in the seventh, giving up a single, home run and a walk before steadying himself to retire the last two batters. Sabathia struck out seven batters.
- Mark Teixeira seems poised to be breaking loose at the plate real soon. He was 2-for-4 in the game and was robbed a sure third hit by a spectacular play by Orioles’ third baseman Miguel Tejada. Teixeira raised his average to .220. Teixeira’s highest batting average this season was on May 17, when he was hitting .224.
- Gardner was 2-for-4 with a single, home run and a stolen base. He is hitting .304 on the season. Gardner is also flashing some power. Last season Gardner hit only three home runs and one of those was an inside-the-park home run. Gardner already has three this season.
- Curtis Granderson is also swinging a hot bat. He was 2-for-4, including an RBI single in the third inning. He is batting .269 on the season.
- Sabathia is having a hard time keeping the balls in the ballpark this season. In his first 12 starts last season, Sabathia surrendered just six home runs. In 12 starts this season, Sabathia has been tagged for 12, including one or more in eight of his last nine starts.
- As stated in the last game’s post, Francisco Cervelli is showing signs of needing a day off from catching. He was 0-for-3 again on Thursday and he now has only three hits in his last 27 at-bats (.111). His season batting average is now down to .294.
- The Yankees have to be quietly concerned about Rivera. It was obvious in Thursday’s game that Rivera lacked his usual precise control. He walked Nick Markakis to begin the ninth inning on a 3-2 pitch, which is unusual in and of itself. However, he followed that by hitting Ty Wigginton on a 2-1 pitch to bring the tying run to the plate. It took Rivera 26 pitches to get through the inning. That is not Mo.
Bottom of the Ninth 